Leadership is a series of behaviors rather than a role for heroes– Margaret Wheatley
Leadership is a series of behaviors rather than a role for heroes
All 12 boys and their football coach have been successfully saved
Export strategy: uncompromising position during negotiations
Export strategy: to create and manage the conflicts
Export strategy: political exchange
Export strategy: suppression of competitor
Export strategy: “barbell strategy”
Export strategy: ”pipeline diplomacy”
Russia’s Asian gas strategy
The Power of Siberia natural-gas project: commercial or political?
•During a presidential summit in Shanghai in May 2014, Russia and China signed a 30-year gas purchase and sale agreement reportedly worth $400bn. •CNPC (China National Petroleum Corporation) committed to buy 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas annually from Gazprom. This volume amounts to 20% of China’s 2014 consumption and 60% of its 2014 gas imports.•The 38-bcm annual volume should be attained around 2025 after a ramp-up period of several years. The first exports could happen in 2019 or 2020. •The official view in Russia is that Power of Siberia, as the project is known, is only the first step toward building a strategic gas relationship with China, akin to the one it has with Western Europe. For China, the gas relationship with Russia is much more mundane. China does not ‘need’ Russian gas and is under no pressure to compromise on its interests, economic or political, in order to get it.
Challenges facing Russia's gas policy
Finding: Russia will be giving priority to pipeline gas exports and develop export strategy aiming the saving current market share, for example, price damping
The U.S. and EU sanctions
Finding: sanctions’ policy can push Russia for closer ties with China, which in the long term may lead to the design of Eurasian power and economic block, which will take a complete shape after joining to them India (by Primakov version - Eurasian triad)
Low oil prices
According to the estimates by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, in 2015 annual GDP could reduce by 4%–5% if oil prices remain low at around $45–$55 per barrel. The government had to provide state support to the Gazprom by taking assets out of the National Welfare Fund, which has created additional risks for the budget. Ensuring the steady demand for external supplies is a serious problem for Russia. Given stagnating demand in the European market, Russia faces a serious issue of organizing the construction of large export infrastructure projects in the eastern direction Finding: Firstly, low oil prices challenge implementation of large upstream projects. The second most important consequence is linked to the reorientation of Russian export policy through involving Asian companies in Russian upstream projects.
Change the climate policy (Paris agreement)
Finding: It is highly unlikely that Russia will be able to expand its exports of gas and oil that was the major driver of the country’s economic development.
Building alternative pipelines in the EU
Finding: Russia is ahead of lobbying Nord Stream 2
Finding: The top managers of above-mentioned companies are ready to fight with Gazprom for the possibility to export the gas.